Start Him

• Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans: Johnson just signed a huge contract and can now solely focus on football and being the premiere back in a new Titan offense. He scored 14 touchdowns in 2009 and 11 in 2010, and he is a solid bet to continue to put up the rushing numbers in 2011. He’ll be going up against the questionable Jacksonville defense in week 1.
• Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles: Like Johnson, Vick just signed a new contract making him the QB of the future with the Eagles. Vick had a breakout year in 2010, throwing for over 3,000 yards and 21 TDs in just 12 games. But, he can also use his legs, making him a dual threat. The Rams will be his first victim of 2011.

Sit Him

• Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts: Sitting Manning would normally be considered ludicrous. But, the Colts QB has been limited in training camp by a neck injury and is a question mark heading into week 1. Play it safe with Manning and give the other QB on team a rare start.

Sleeper

• Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions: Chances are Matt Stafford wasn’t picked very high in your fantasy draft if he was even drafted at all. And for good reason: Injuries have limited him to just 13 games his first two years in the league. But, Stafford and the Lions are poised for big things in 2011, having finally recovered from the Matt Millen era. Prior to Detroit’s final preseason game at Buffalo, Stafford has completed 77 percent of his passes for five TDs and zero turnovers. And, with a questionable backfield, look for Stafford to begin airing it out at Tampa Bay on September 11.

Yes Peyton Hillis has broken out onto the fantasy scene and has done fairly well, but don’t get too excited because what you see is what you get. What i mean by this is the performances you are seeing from him now are as good as he will do. Hillis dose not have any glaring attributes besides the fact that he has the typical bowling ball fullback power but other than in short yardage situations it dose not come in handy that much. His speed is  at best decent and he lacks the ability to make defenders miss. But what he lacks in the speed department he makes up in power and tough yards. What this means is he will almost never have huge games, but he will be consistent as long as he stays healthy which has remained to be seen from him, and his running style dose not bode well for staying healthy with all the contact he takes. But as long as he stays healthy he will consistently have close to 100 yards and/or a TD in each game. Which when it comes to fantasy that’s what I value most. Not big game potential which some people cant get over, but consistent players who score 10+ points in standard scoring leagues. A big reason on why i think Hillis is doing great is the fact his O line is among one of the best in the league. Anchored by Joe Thomas, it is the driving force behind Hillis’s success. So far this season Hillis has averaged 4.9 yards per carry, that in its self should scream Consistency considering he has had only 2 carries for more than 20 yards. He also has 4 touchdowns this season which is tied for the league lead. So if you have him on your team expect consitent play every week from him but no Chris Johnson type games. Also add to the fact that he is a fairly decent pass catcher, in two games as a starter Hillis had 9 catches for 44 yards. Which in PPR leagues is a nice addition to the consistent 100 yard or 1 TD a game to expect out of him. So lets go over the Pro’s and Con’s of Hillis. Pro’s, hard runner, great yards per carry, great goal line back, consistent, top tier line and great hands. Con’s, not a big play threat, no second gear, takes a lot of punishment with tough running style, possibly injury prone. For me the Pro’s outweigh the Con’s for Hillis.

But this breakout didn’t come as a surprise to many including me. In Hillis’s rookie year with the Denver Broncos he got the chance to play significant time for Denver starting in week 9 and sadly ending in week 14 with a season ending Hamstring tear. But in that span of  5 games Hillis accumulated 329 yards rushing on 65 carries, 175 yards receiving on 13 receptions and a total of 6 yes 6 touchdowns. In standard leagues that’s 85 points in 6 games which is pretty good considering he was a rookie, now he has a chance to show what he can do. And for me when Montario Hardesty went down with a season ending ACL tear and Harrison was looking terrible during the preseason, i went and picked myself up Hillis a week before the season started. This might be my key pickup for my Fantasy season this year.

So if you are asking yourself should i try to trade Hillis while he is hot or keep him and hope his performances stay consistent, please take my advice and keep him. He will stay consistent and score you good points on a regular basis as long as he is healthy, so lets keep our fingers crossed..

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Even the best can only shoot for 50% accuracy on their rankings. It’s a coin flip. The NFL is the hardest league to predict when it comes to fantasy production.

Matt Forte finished 2008 as the #8 overall player and entered 2009 as a consensus top 3 selection. He finished #63 overall. It’s the same way the NFL playoffs have a 50% turnover ratio every year. Of the 12 playoff teams one season, only 6 will be back. Yet every year, the major publications are picking the same teams over and over again. This is what I hope to guard against in fantasy football.

What can we expect for 2010? Using Pro-Football Reference.com as a resource, I researched how many players repeated as top 12 performers and how that affects the top of the draft board for 2010.

Since 2000, less than 4 players, on average, have ranked in the top 12 in back-to-back seasons. What this means is we can look at the 2009 top 12 and know that only 4 players (at the most) will be there when 2010 concludes.

Now, let’s break this down by position. Over the past 10 years, the aggregate top 12 looks like this.

Two quarterbacks, 7 running backs, 3 receivers.
(Note: Tight ends have made the cut only 3 times in 10 seasons.)

Now we look at the top 12 returnees by position. We said earlier that only 4 players repeat and the aggregate looks like this:

3 running backs, 1 receiver.

This means that, on average, every year the top 12 includes 2 quarterbacks, 7 running backs, & 3 receivers. And that the following year only 3 running backs and 1 receiver are still there. Two brand-new quarterbacks, 4 running backs, and 2 receivers will join the top 12.

So which 4 players will be in the top 12 when 2010 ends? Let’s look at the suspects.

• Chris Johnson: 24 years old, coming off a record-breaking season.
• Adrian Peterson: 24 years old, still finished #2 despite almost 400 yards rushing stolen by Brett Favre.
• Aaron Rodgers: 26 years old, back-to-back 4,000 yard passing seasons.
• Maurice Jones-Drew: 24 years old, proved he could carry a full load after Fred Taylor’s departure.
• Ray Rice: 23 years old, an all-purpose yardage machine.
• Andre Johnson: 28 years old, topped 100 receptions in last 3 full seasons.
• Randy Moss: 33 years old, still Tom Brady’s most dangerous weapon.
• Drew Brees: 31 years old, 4 consecutive 4,000 yards season and back-to-back 34 touchdown years
• Miles Austin: 25 years old, breakout season with 83 receptions
• DeSean Jackson: 23 years old, same number of catches as rookie season (62) but touchdowns jumped from 3 to 10.
• Thomas Jones: 31 years old, 6 straight seasons of 240+ carries.
• Frank Gore: 26 years old, lots of ability but only got 229 carries; 13 touchdowns put him on this list.

So we have 6 running backs and we know from history that only 3 will repeat their performance. We eliminate Jones because of his age and the emergence of Shonn Greene. Gore is out until the Niners prove they are committed to the run. Peterson is Mr. Consistent and Jones-Drew has a nose for the end zone and plays for a run-first team. Rice will only get better on a solid Baltimore squad. That leaves C. Johnson out of the mix as well.

Wait, a 2,000 yard rusher not predicted to finish in the top 12 in fantasy points?!?!? It’s been tough times after a 2k season for most. Add to this Jeff Fisher’s intention of limiting his carries and it’s the logical choice.

Now, I’m not saying he won’t have a good year. Remember, he could finish as high as 13th overall and I am still right. Stronger cases can be made for the other 3 running backs I chose. Don’t get caught up in remembering last year’s stats. In fact, only 3 times has a player finished the year #1 overall and even made the top 12 the next season. That’s 30%. Starting to see a trend?

Now that the running backs are selected, that leaves 1 receiver to choose from the 4 candidates. I feel like the easy choice to remove is Moss. His age and the apparent decline of the Patriots is the biggest obstacle he’ll face. A. Johnson appears to be a lock whether Matt Schaub stays healthy or not. So that removes Jackson & Austin from the mix.

My choices for players who can repeat as members of the top 12?

• Peterson
• Jones-Drew
• Rice
• A. Johnson

This means C. Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Moss, Drew Brees, Austin, Jackson, Jones & Gore will all finish outside the top 12 in 2010. Sounds crazy? I agree, it sounds insane. But the fact remains; it has always been this way. We just never remember from year-to-year.

One thing you can take away from this is not putting too much stock in last year’s stats. They are accurate only 30% of the time. So the next time you are surfing a site and you find their rankings resemble how the players finished the previous season, stay far away.

They not only lack originality but they are serving the status quo. Thinking my way will guarantee it you will not be mediocre. If you guess wrong on which players will repeat, you could have a tough year, but if you grasp this concept and guess right, the rest of your league won’t know what hit them.

Fear not fellow fantasy owners, this is the last week with six teams on a bye. Fortunately, out of the six teams on a bye, four of them are the Bills, Browns, Raiders and Rams so there is not a lot of fantasy value that will be on the shelf this week. Granted, Adrian Peterson and his Vikings cohorts are one of the teams on a bye, but things could be much worse as most of your quality bench players should be startable this week.

Injury updates

–Calvin Johnson–The Lions beat writer, John Niyo, is reporting that Megatron is “expected back” for this Sunday’s game at Seattle. Of course, this was the report at this time last week, and all Johnson owners know how that turned out. Unfortunately, this will be another game-time decision so stay close to your computers on Sunday morning.

–Kevin Boss and Mario Manningham–Rotoworld.com is reporting that both players are expected to practice today (11/4), however, it appears that Kevin Boss (ankle) has a better chance than Manningham (shoulder) of suiting up Sunday against the Chargers. Given that most owners only carry one TE on the roster, Boss owners might want to get a waiver claim in. If you have Manningham, you should already have suitable replacements on the roster but looking at a player like Malcom Floyd (see below) could be beneficial.

–Aaron Rodgers–Despite his offensive lines’ best efforts, Rodgers should be healthy enough to take on a beleagured Tampa Bay defense this Sunday. Feel safe plugging him in the line, but just make sure he puts in a full practice on Friday. Green Bay has good matchups for the next four weeks, but then runs into a rough schedule in December which includes games against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and on the road at Chicago.

–Willie Parker–The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that the artist formerly know as Fast Willie is expected to play in week 9. Unfortunately, Mendenhall has already surplanted him as the starting RB and the dependable Mewelde Moore will also get some touches going forward. Willie Parker’s fantasy value is nominal outside of an injury to Mendenhall.

–Brian Westbrook–Reports are coming out today that Westbrook has been medically cleared to return to game actions. Therefore, he should be suiting up for Sunday’s divisional battle against the Cowboys. The Cowboys defense has improved of late and rookie LeSean McCoy will see an increased number of touches, therefore, Westbrook’s fantasy value might be hampered this week (assuming he plays). Obviously, it’s tough to sit a player of Westbrook’s calibre, but don’t expect too much and don’t be afraid to bench him if you have a qaulity play coming off your bench.

Positional battles

–Steve Slaton vs. Ryan Moats–Contrary to reports, the rush of waiver requests for Moats did not crash servers across the country. How suprising was Moats’ breakout game? Even Slaton told a recent ESPN Radio podcast that his handcuff would be Chris Brown (no, not that Chris Brown). Expect Moats to see an increased workload, but Slaton is still the man in Houston and he hopefully has learned how to protect the football. However, Chris Brown will still be vulturing the occassional goal line carry. However, outside of their week 10 bye, the Texans have some favorable matchups so points can be aplenty going forward.

–Julius Jones vs. Justin Forsett–After Edgerrin James was showing the door this week, rookie RB Justin Forsett has moved into the backup role to Jones. Given that Forsett was already see the field before, his workload should increase but isn’t much of a fantasy option unless Jones is benched or injured. Unfortunately, Seattle has fallen behind in so many games that the running game is normally abandoned at halftime. However, Seattle’s upcoming schedule is favorable and Forsett might be worth a roster spot (especially in PPR leagues).

–Kevin Jones vs. Maurice Morris–Lions coach Jim Schwartz stated this week that Kevin Jones will continue to be starter and get the “lion’s” share of the work (pun intended). If you own Jones, picking up Morris might be worthwhile as long as you don’t have to drop anyone worthwhile. Outside of that, don’t bother with Morris as he won’t produce much in any event other than a Jones injury.

Waiver Wire Work

As mentioned before, the bye week hit is minimal this week given that the talent (or general lack thereof) will be playing 18 (or the hard this Sunday. Given the release of Chris Chambers in San Diego, a look at the 6’5″ Malcom Floyd might be worth your time. Granted, a #2 WR that shares an offense with a stud TE normally doesn’t produce great numbers, but you can do worse given his weekly matchups. From a defensive standpoint, don’t be afraid to grab Seattle (at home vs. Detroit) or Jacksonville (at home vs. KC). Unless you get points from special team’s TDs in your league (which boost units with great kick/punt returners), picking up and dropping defensive units based on matchup is a good move.

Good luck as always this weekend and I hope your push for the fantasy playoffs is a successful venture. Be sure to catch my Friday article where we rank the flex plays for week 10 after the injury news is a bit clearer. Thank you for your time!

It is an e-mail draft made up of leading fantasy football website owners.  With an e-mail draft you’ll see picks come in bunches followed by long periods of no picks often followed up by another flurry of activity.

Enjoy the draft and look for our commentary about our picks and the draft in general posted here.

We’ve been inching McFadden up our cheat sheets all summer long – this guy is an amazing talent and it appears the Raiders are ready to take advantage of it.

This could mean a few less carries for Lynch, but not too many would make sense.  We’ve seen Marshawn be much more effective with 20+ carries a game so although Jackson might be a nice back to spell Lynch he’s not a great fantasy play behind a guy like Lynch.

However, the Falcons are indicating they’d like to see Turner carry the ball more like 275 times in 2009.

FantasyDraftEdge.com Take

That’s easy to say in July but when it comes time to win games and Jerious Norwood is hurt again they’ll give the ball to Turner.  Yes, the Falcons have more weapons on offense but we expect Matt Ryan to regress a bit this season and the run game despite best intentions for balance will still be the primary focus of the Falcons offense.