A Google search for “fantasy football league” returns 451,000 results. While a search for “fantasy football expert” returns 133,000. I am not sure what qualifies a person to be an “expert”. There are not any certifications or tests you have to pass to become an expert. I think you can just say it.
Before you choose a fantasy football site to help you during the season, do your homework and research the experts track record and past performance and choose a site that offers a unique insight into the trade.
Even the best can only shoot for 50% accuracy on their rankings. It’s a coin flip. The NFL is the hardest league to predict when it comes to fantasy production.
Matt Forte finished 2008 as the #8 overall player and entered 2009 as a consensus top 3 selection. He finished #63 overall. It’s the same way the NFL playoffs have a 50% turnover ratio every year. Of the 12 playoff teams one season, only 6 will be back. Yet every year, the major publications are picking the same teams over and over again. This is what I hope to guard against in fantasy football.
What can we expect for 2010? Using Pro-Football Reference.com as a resource, I researched how many players repeated as top 12 performers and how that affects the top of the draft board for 2010.
Since 2000, less than 4 players, on average, have ranked in the top 12 in back-to-back seasons. What this means is we can look at the 2009 top 12 and know that only 4 players (at the most) will be there when 2010 concludes.
Now, let’s break this down by position. Over the past 10 years, the aggregate top 12 looks like this.
Two quarterbacks, 7 running backs, 3 receivers.
(Note: Tight ends have made the cut only 3 times in 10 seasons.)
Now we look at the top 12 returnees by position. We said earlier that only 4 players repeat and the aggregate looks like this:
3 running backs, 1 receiver.
This means that, on average, every year the top 12 includes 2 quarterbacks, 7 running backs, & 3 receivers. And that the following year only 3 running backs and 1 receiver are still there. Two brand-new quarterbacks, 4 running backs, and 2 receivers will join the top 12.
So which 4 players will be in the top 12 when 2010 ends? Let’s look at the suspects.
- Chris Johnson: 24 years old, coming off a record-breaking season.
- Adrian Peterson: 24 years old, still finished #2 despite almost 400 yards rushing stolen by Brett Favre.
- Aaron Rodgers: 26 years old, back-to-back 4,000 yard passing seasons.
- Maurice Jones-Drew: 24 years old, proved he could carry a full load after Fred Taylor’s departure.
- Ray Rice: 23 years old, an all-purpose yardage machine.
- Andre Johnson: 28 years old, topped 100 receptions in last 3 full seasons.
- Randy Moss: 33 years old, still Tom Brady’s most dangerous weapon.
- Drew Brees: 31 years old, 4 consecutive 4,000 yards season and back-to-back 34 touchdown years
- Miles Austin: 25 years old, breakout season with 83 receptions
- DeSean Jackson: 23 years old, same number of catches as rookie season (62) but touchdowns jumped from 3 to 10.
- Thomas Jones: 31 years old, 6 straight seasons of 240+ carries.
- Frank Gore: 26 years old, lots of ability but only got 229 carries; 13 touchdowns put him on this list.
So we have 6 running backs and we know from history that only 3 will repeat their performance. We eliminate Jones because of his age and the emergence of Shonn Greene. Gore is out until the Niners prove they are committed to the run. Peterson is Mr. Consistent and Jones-Drew has a nose for the end zone and plays for a run-first team. Rice will only get better on a solid Baltimore squad. That leaves C. Johnson out of the mix as well.
Wait, a 2,000 yard rusher not predicted to finish in the top 12 in fantasy points?!?!? It’s been tough times after a 2k season for most. Add to this Jeff Fisher’s intention of limiting his carries and it’s the logical choice.
Now, I’m not saying he won’t have a good year. Remember, he could finish as high as 13th overall and I am still right. Stronger cases can be made for the other 3 running backs I chose. Don’t get caught up in remembering last year’s stats. In fact, only 3 times has a player finished the year #1 overall and even made the top 12 the next season. That’s 30%. Starting to see a trend?
Now that the running backs are selected, that leaves 1 receiver to choose from the 4 candidates. I feel like the easy choice to remove is Moss. His age and the apparent decline of the Patriots is the biggest obstacle he’ll face. A. Johnson appears to be a lock whether Matt Schaub stays healthy or not. So that removes Jackson & Austin from the mix.
My choices for players who can repeat as members of the top 12?
- Peterson
- Jones-Drew
- Rice
- A. Johnson
This means C. Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Moss, Drew Brees, Austin, Jackson, Jones & Gore will all finish outside the top 12 in 2010. Sounds crazy? I agree, it sounds insane. But the fact remains; it has always been this way. We just never remember from year-to-year.
One thing you can take away from this is not putting too much stock in last year’s stats. They are accurate only 30% of the time. So the next time you are surfing a site and you find their rankings resemble how the players finished the previous season, stay far away.
They not only lack originality but they are serving the status quo. Thinking my way will guarantee it you will not be mediocre. If you guess wrong on which players will repeat, you could have a tough year, but if you grasp this concept and guess right, the rest of your league won’t know what hit them.
